I have a quick stats question about Tyler's FT shooting. I know he has been to the FT line more than any other Tar Heel and that he shoots around 77% from the line, which is pretty darn good. The only time he seems to show that he gets tired is when he is shooting FTs while winded, as expected. My question is, does the FT shooting % for Tyler vary from 1st to 2nd halves or when he has played more minutes? I know this is not a direct way to measure that statistic but I figured this may shed some light.
Bernardo
UNC Alum Class 2007
Nashville, TN
Lauren writes: On the season, Hansbrough has made 113-of-133 free throws (85%) in the first half of games and 127-of-163 (77.9%) in the second half. He has also made 11-of-14 free throws (78.6%) in the four overtime periods Carolina has played in. He missed both attempts in the first overtime game at Clemson and has since made 11-of-12. In ACC play alone, Hansbrough has made 54-of-62 free throws in the first half (87.1%) and 64-of-84 in the second half (76.2%).
All of those percentages are good, but it does seem to be true that Hansbrough starts to lose his legs a bit at the line. In Carolina's six blowout ACC wins, Hansbrough has shot 33-of-40 from the foul line in the second half (82.5%) but in Carolina's eight close or overtime games, he has shot 42-of-58 (72.4%) in the second half and overtimes. In the second half alone of those close contests, he has shot 31-of-44 (70.5%).
Rebounding would be another sign of weak legs, though, and that has not been a weak point for Hansbrough in either half. The fewest rebounds he has had in the second half of an ACC game this season is two; in seven of 14 second halves in ACC play, he has five or more rebounds (including 11 in the second half against duke). He also has a ridiculous 14 rebounds in four overtime periods (20 minutes), or 0.7 rebounds per minute. Turnovers might also be a sign of fatigue - in ACC play, Hansbrough has 17 first-half turnovers compared to 13 second-half turnovers. He has just one overtime turnover. On the season, he has 34 first-half turnovers to 28 second-half turnovers. His steals also go up from the first to second half in ACC play, from six total first-half steals to 15 second-half steals and one overtime steal.
Hansbrough has failed to shoot 50% or higher from the field in just 11 first halves in 29 games this season. Of those 11, he turned it around and shot 50% or better in the second half eight times. The Boston College game Saturday snapped a six-game streak of shooting at least 50% in the first half and an 11-game streak of shooting at least 50% in one half.
He has failed to shoot at least 50% from the field in the second half in just nine of 29 games this season. He has shot 59.2% from the field on the season in the second half compared to 52% in the first half. Since ACC play began, Hansbrough has improved his point totals from the first to the second half in seven of 15 games. The biggest improvement came at Miami - he scored just eight points in the first half and went off for 27 in the second half. He has also had at least one double-digit half in each of the last seven games.
That kind of improvement just shows what kind of will Hansbrough has, as if Carolina fans needed additional evidence. But what shows the kind of steadiness that causes the fans and the media alike to sometimes take him for granted is this:
(In ACC play)
1st half: 11.6 points per game, 5.4 rebounds per game
2nd half: 11.4 points per game, 5.0 rebounds per game
6 comments:
Dude, I read mailbag yesterday, and didn't even see that that was your question! Good work!
I am now even with you. I liked yours a few years back about which end the risers should be in.
And FWIW, I think that you are correct that free throw shooting is the best stat to consider in terms of fatigue. It's the best controlled situation. He points about turnovers, etc. are nice, but it's such a small sample... not to mention the variability of how those around him are playing in different situations.
I do agree that Tyler is very good throughout the game, but I would say that the close to 10% difference in FT shooting does mean something right?
You are completely right. I recommend you do the stats, and send her the p value.
As for being even with me, I think I need to get published about 15 times in the Dallas Morning News before I'm even up with you (plus another first author peer-reviewed manuscript or two).
Haha. I must say that after the first paper I now get more joy out of getting on a mailbag, or the odd DMN guest column, than out of a science paper. Kind of scary.
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